Trump’s reelection isn’t surprising. Country music warned us.

Earlier this year at the Billboard and NMPA Songwriter Awards show, alternative pop singer Lana Del Rey made an observation about the state of the music industry. 
“If you can’t already tell by our award winners and our performers, the music business is going country. We’re going country. It’s happening,” she said. “That’s why Jack (Antonoff) has followed me to Muscle Shoals, Nashville, Mississippi, over the last four years.”
Her escapade through the American South with Antonoff manifested in “Lasso,” her 10th studio album and first proper foray into country music that was set to release in September. Though the album is yet to be released, this year alone has proved Del Rey’s statement prophetic. 
The past two years have undoubtedly seen a resurgence of country music. It was the fastest-growing genre last year with 23.8% growth in streaming compared with 2022, according to Luminate.
Artists like Morgan Wallen (despite, or because of, his controversies), Luke Combs, Post Malone, Beyoncé, Shaboozey and Sabrina Carpenter have found success within the genre.
Country music’s rise in popularity can be mainly attributed to streaming. Traditionally, country music listeners consumed the genre through live music spaces (dive bars, concerts, etc.) or through traditional music mediums like radio and physical albums.
After 2020, as opportunities to hear country music live decreased due to the COVID-19 pandemic and digital and physical album sales continued to trend downward, country listeners caught up with other genres and shifted to streaming. Gen Z and millennials make up half of the average listenership for artists like Zach Bryan, according to Variety.
Audiences’ westward inclination also reflects our cultural moment. It makes sense that a genre so steeped in Republican ideology has found new popularity in the years leading up to the reelection of Donald Trump.
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Before the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, country music was a nonpartisan space for working-class Americans living in rural areas to air out their grievances with poverty, exploitation and existing on the margins of society. In tandem with the post-9/11 rise of nationalism, country music shifted right.
It largely abandoned its traditional messaging in favor of “beer-drinkin’, tractor-ridin’, all-American” messaging, as a Northeastern study put it. 
Luckily, current country music has moved away from the hyper-American subject matter. Modern artists continue country music’s tradition of centering storytelling through music. Today’s country music is filled with relatable lyrics about times of uncertainty and struggle in addition to universal themes, like love, heartbreak and loss.
Even not-really-country-but-almost-country artists – many inspired by formerly country Taylor Swift – like Olivia Rodrigo, Gracie Abrams, Lizzy McAlpine, Sabrina Carpenter and Phoebe Bridgers appeal to listeners’ heaviest emotions with diary-like songwriting and country sensibilities. 
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But there’s a not-so-hidden politic in country music that explains its rise in popularity. The remnants of the 9/11 genre remain. Its propagation of traditional, American ideals (hard work, the nuclear family, Christianity, unwavering military support, patriotism in all its forms, etc.) caused the genre to be heavily associated with political conservatism.
Though it’s not entirely unique to the genre, the past couple of years have seen artists use country music to relay their conservative political ideals to the public.
In 2023, Jason Aldean released “Try That in a Small Town,” a song that drew criticism for stoking violence against those advocating for racial justice. Some interpretations of the song being an “ode to a sundown town” aren’t far-fetched as the song includes these lyrics: “Well, try that in a small town/ See how far ya make it down the road/ Around here, we take care of our own” ‒ and a music video filmed at an actual lynching site.
Despite that, the song reached No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 and experienced the biggest sales week for a country song in more than 10 years.
That same year, Oliver Anthony went viral for his working-man anthem “Rich Men North of Richmond.” Despite its QAnon conspiracy theory references and shaming of those on welfare, the song broke records with its No. 1 debut and was even played during the GOP presidential primary debate.
Anthony pushed back on Republicans co-opting his song. 
Regardless, country audiences aren’t exactly clamoring to shake off the far-right associations. Country music hasn’t been kind to those who speak out against Republican leadership or threaten the genre’s status quo. There’s the infamous case of The Chicks, who were blacklisted from country radio for speaking out against then-President George W. Bush in 2003.
In 2016, Beyonce’s performance with The Chicks at the Country Music Awards made her fodder for racist attacks. This experience would serve as her inspiration for “Cowboy Carter,” which was excluded from this year’s CMA nominations.
Mind you, this is the same awards body that hadn’t awarded a single Black woman in any category until last year. Even this year, the CMAs didn’t award Shaboozey, whose record-breaking song “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” is just one week away from potentially tying for the longest-running No. 1 single in Billboard Hot 100 history. 
The off-color jokes about his stage name surely didn’t help, either.
Country music’s renaissance and semi return to form reflect the idealized nostalgia and discontent with the present shared by the American public.
These are the same sentiments many attribute to the reelection of Trump. Americans’ dissatisfaction has caused many to take a rose-colored look in the rearview and misattribute the causes of their valid anger. 
The resurgence of country music isn’t the only evidence of a culture moving backward. The proliferation of “trad wife,” or homesteader content online, has given way to reductive and gender-essentialist views on relationships, womanhood and feminism. Music, film and fashion are consumed by mediocre replications of things that were cool and interesting 10 to 20 years ago.
After all, Trump’s campaign slogan “Make America Great Again” harkens back to a mythical time. 
Many have become disillusioned by the empty promises of a bright future. Sometimes the light behind us shines brighter than the one ahead.    
And country music’s adherence to tradition offers a comfortable past for audiences to relish in.
Despite the rise of queer and POC country artists, the genre has proved it’s slow to progress. It’s hard to imagine the narrow halls of country music bending to artists – and politics – that break tradition. It’s even harder to imagine if the GOP’s recent modicum of inclusion will influence other silos of conservative culture.
But what good is progress when so many are eager to turn back?
Kofi Mframa is a columnist and digital producer for USA TODAY and the USA TODAY Network.