These are 10 of the best films I saw at TIFF. What are their Oscar chances?

It’s always a good sign when it feels as if a film festival is ending too soon.
Even though I saw dozens of the features at the 49th Toronto International Film Festival, there are still more I want to see, among them Pedro Almodóvar’s “The Room Next Door” (which took top prize at the Venice fest), Brady Corbet’s “The Brutalist” and Luca Guadagnino’s “Queer.”
Deadlines don’t always sync with screening times, so my list of 10 favourites from TIFF is necessarily more a series of snapshots from a very good fest, the best since 2019.
I limited my picks to mostly discoveries made in Toronto — I’ve already raved about Cannes faves “Anora,” “The Substance,” “The Shrouds,” “Emilia Pérez” and others — but I did include one film I missed at Cannes, Mohammad Rasoulof’s potent thriller, “The Seed of the Sacred Fig.”
And since TIFF coincides with the official start of awards season, I’ve also included my predictions on how these films (and one TV series) will fare:
Ralph Fiennes commands attention as a Vatican dean of cardinals forced to play detective in Edward Berger’s masterful political thriller, set during a papal election. Berger (“All Quiet on the Western Front”) expertly adapts to the screen the novel by Robert Harris, who specializes in backstage intrigue. Fiennes’ Cardinal Lawrence, fighting doubts about his church but not his faith, combines humility with Colombo-style intuition as he navigates warring progressive and conservative forces seeking to succeed a pope who died suddenly and suspiciously. Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow, Isabella Rossellini and Lucian Msamati help round out a divine cast.
Possible Oscars best picture, director, actor (Fiennes), supporting actor (Tucci), supporting actress (Rossellini) and adapted screenplay.
A lost robot, an orphaned gosling and a canny fox join forces in Chris Sanders’ ode to love and teamwork in a screen adaptation of Peter Brown’s children’s story of the same name. Oscar-winner Lupita Nyong’o voices the title character, a robot named Roz designed to aid humans, who finds herself stranded on a remote island surrounded by wild animals. Roz recalls the Tin Man of “The Wizard of Oz” with her empathetic voicing of a machine learning what a heart is for. The animation is painterly and gorgeous. The fantastic voice cast also includes Pedro Pascal, Catherine O’Hara, Mark Hamill, Bill Nighy and Ving Rhames. It’s simply the best animated film I’ve seen all year.
Possible Oscars best animated feature and best adapted screenplay.
Since Rachel Yoder’s wild mom-to-mongrel novel “Nightbitch” was published in 2021, readers have speculated about how it would fare as a film. Now we know, happily: Marielle Heller’s taut screen adaptation tilts toward dark family comedy and away from Yoder’s often horrific imagery. This makes the film more human and relatable, with Amy Adams giving her all as a stressed-out suburban mom who believes she’s turning into a dog — complete with fur, fangs and a craving for raw meat. Adams’ off-leash energy seizes the frame, but Scoot McNairy provides excellent support as the clueless absentee dad who can’t process what’s going on with his wife or his life.
Possible Oscars best picture, director, actress (Adams), supporting actor (McNairy) and adapted screenplay.
The screenwriter’s maxim of Chekhov’s gun — a firearm glimpsed early must become part of the plot — has never been more explosive than it is in this furtive family saga by Iran’s Mohammad Rasoulof. He made this psychological thriller in secret and was later forced to flee his country to escape imprisonment by its repressive regime. It’s the story of Iman (Missagh Zareh), a lawyer in the Revolutionary Court in Tehran who thinks his life has taken a turn for the better when he’s promoted to the role of senior investigator. So does his wife (Soheila Golestani), who dreams the promotion will mean better housing for the family. Their two young-adult daughters (Mahsa Rostami, Setareh Maleki) are less impressed; their dad is working for a government inflamed by scandal and public protests. Hence the gun, which Iman has been given for personal protection but which becomes a tragic symbol of corruption.
Possible Oscars best international feature, best original screenplay.
The barely controlled mayhem of Jason Reitman’s latest comic feature tells the strange and mostly true tale of the wild Oct. 11, 1975 launch of groundbreaking TV comedy show “Saturday Night Live.” Montreal-born Reitman (“Juno”) focuses on the perspective of Toronto-born Lorne Michaels, the show’s creator and still its guiding force. Michaels is played by Canadian Gabriel LaBelle, who stood in for a young Steven Spielberg in “Meet the Fabelmans.” It helps a lot if you’re a longtime “SNL” viewer, to better understand the many inside jokes and recognize behind-the-camera players. But you can’t miss the funny with a cast that also includes Cory Michael Smith, Finn Wolfhard, Willem Dafoe, Ella Hunt, Rachel Sennott, Lamorne Morris and J.K. Simmons.
Possible Oscars best picture, director and supporting actor (Smith).
There was a lot of pre-TIFF talk about the sex and nudity in this erotic drama from Halina Reijn (“Bodies Bodies Bodies”), but the fearless Nicole Kidman has shown more skin in the past. What she bares most here, in almost breathtaking fashion, is naked emotion. She’s simply astounding as Romy, a married top-level executive who foolishly falls into an intense sexual and role-playing relationship with an intern (Harris Dickinson of “Triangle of Sadness”). This provocative flip of the usual C-suite gender dynamics juggles corporate power politics and #MeToo reckoning like sticks of lit dynamite.
Possible Oscars best actress (Kidman), best supporting actor (Dickinson), best original screenplay.
You need to see all seven chapters of this psychological thriller from five-time Oscar winner Alfonso Cuarón (“Roma”) to really understand the point he’s making about assuming the worst in uncertain circumstances. Based on the eponymous bestselling novel by Renée Knight, this TV miniseries, shown in TIFF’s Primetime program, stars Cate Blanchett as a crusading journalist whose own life is upended when a book by a mystery author reveals her dark secrets. The ace ensemble cast also includes Kevin Kline, Sacha Baron Cohen and Lesley Manville. The series will keep you doubting your eyes until the credits roll.
Possible Emmys best limited or anthology series, best lead actress (Blanchett), best lead actor (Kline), best casting for a limited series.
The Hatfields and McCoys have nothing on the bloody feud between the rural neighbours of Christophers Andrews’ slow-burning feature debut, set in a disarmingly tranquil part of Ireland. Disagreements over land access and livestock combine with past tragedy and current misery, yoking together two families in sorrow, shame and violence. Barry Keoghan (“Saltburn”), Christopher Abbott (“Sanctuary”) and Nora-Jane Noone (“Brooklyn”) lead an outstanding cast that illustrates the high cost of failing to heal old wounds. One of the most powerful films I saw at TIFF.
Possible Oscars best international feature, best supporting actor (Keoghan).
Veteran film editor William Goldenberg’s solid feature directing debut is a real-life Cinderella story about a young wrestler fighting physical and social limitations. It’s an actor’s showcase for rising star Jharrel Jerome (“Moonlight” and TV’s “When They See Us”). Jerome plays Anthony Robles, an American wrestler born with one leg who fought to win despite the odds stacked against him. This inspirational saga is greatly enhanced by the supporting cast, including Don Cheadle and Michael Peña as demanding coaches, Jennifer Lopez as Anthony’s supportive mom and Bobby Cannavale as a combustible member of the household. Goldenberg’s sharp eye as an editor enhances the fight scenes, where the real Robles doubles for Jerome.
Possible awards TIFF audience prize, Oscar for best actor (Jerome).
Pharrell Williams ’ unmistakable beats are represented as Lego sculptures in this animated — and highly original — approach to the life and music of the hip-hop/R&B star and producer. It’s an idea he suggested to Oscar-winning documentarian Morgan Neville (“20 Feet from Stardom”) to avoid the same-old of celebrity docs. Fellow travellers Gwen Stefani, Busta Rhymes, Kendrick Lamar, Snoop Dogg and Jay-Z are also depicted in Lego bricks, as is the ghost of astronomer Carl Sagan. An act of brilliant creativity, boldly and amusingly rendered.
Possible Oscars best animated feature, best original song (“Piece by Piece”).